“The high fiscal uncertainty, as well as expectations of rising taxation amid a persistently high budgetary gap will lead to a significant slowdown of the disinflationary process. Thus, survey participants expect the inflation rate to fall by less than a percentage point in the next 12 months,” says Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of CFA Romania Association.
As regards CFA’s macroeconomic confidence indicator, it rose by 9 points in December to 56.6 points amid the increase in both its components.
In line with the survey, the 2023 state budget gap is seen at 5.8% of GDP and for 2024 survey participants expect it to reach 5.6%, while the real term growth of GDP in 2023 is put at 2.0%, while for 2024 economic growth expectations point at 2.6%.
At the same time, the 3-month ROBOR, used to calculate variable interest rates for RON-denominated loans contracted before May 2019, is projected to reach 5.69% in the next 12 months.
With regard to the evolution of housing prices in cities, 37% of respondents expect a decline, while 50% of respondents forecast stability in the next 12 months. Also, 71% of participants believe current prices are overvalued, while 29% consider them to be accurately valued.
Public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is anticipated to rise to 54% in the next 12 months.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)