In line with CFA data collected in March 2024, almost 88% of financial analysts participating in the monthly survey project an exchange rate of 4.9961 units/Euro in the next 6 months.
As regards CFA’s macroeconomic confidence indicator, it dropped in March by 1.4 points to 51.6 points, amid the diverging evolution of its two components: an increase by 5.2 points for current conditions and a 4.7-point decline for anticipations.
“While, on the short term, owing to the inflow of public money, economic confidence is rising, for the 12-month period, given macroeconomic imbalances and the high fiscal uncertainty, economic confidence has weakened,” says Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of CFA Romania Association.
In line with the survey, the state budget gap for 2024 is projected to reach 5.4%, slightly down from the previous exercise, while economic growth is estimated at 2.7%, slightly up from 2.5%.
At the same time, the 3-month ROBOR, used to calculate variable interest rates for RON-denominated loans contracted before May 2019, is forecast to reach 5.33% in the next 12 months.
With regard to the evolution of housing prices in cities, 44% of respondents expect stability in the next 12 months, while 38% anticipate rising prices. At the same time, 62% of respondents consider current prices as overvalued, while 38% believe they are accurately assessed.
Public debt calculated as percentage of GDP is projected to rise to 53% in the next 12 months.
During the March exercise, a survey was also carried out with regard to the evolution of inflation in the coming years and the evolution of the benchmark interest rate.
Thus, 29% of respondents expect the first rate cut in May 2024, while 36% see it in July 2024. As regards inflation entering the targeted interval (1.5%-3,5%), 56% of participants forecast this will happen in 2025, while 25% anticipate the event will occur in 2026.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)