In line with the data CFA collected in October, for the 7-month horizon most analysts included in the monthly survey project a leu exchange rate of 5.000 units/EUR.
As regards the macroeconomic confidence index, it dropped to 33.3 points.
“Amid expectations of a severe global growth slowdown, the macroeconomic confidence index continued to decline, registering values close to all-time lows, in line with the drop to all-time lows of confidence indices globally,” explains Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of CFA Romania Association.
The 2002 state budget gap reached the average value of expectations of 6.6%, while real GDP growth in 2022 is expected to reach 4.5%, up from the previous forecast of 4% growth. For 2023, real GDP growth is put at 1.6%.
At the same time, the three-month ROBOR is projected to reach 8.39 a year in the next 12 months, up from the previous forecast of 7.39%.
Around 79% of respondents expect housing prices to fall, while 83% believe the prices are overvalued.
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 and aims to evaluate financial analysts’ expectations regarding the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. The index is calculated on a scale ranging from zero (no confidence) to 100 points (full confidence in the Romanian economy).
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)