Data collected by CFA shows that for the six-month horizon 95% of analysts expect the leu to average 5.0240 to the euro.
The survey also shows Romania’s economy is projected to grow by 3.5% in real terms and the budget deficit to average 6.2% of GDP in 2022. Romania’s three-month ROBOR index, the interbank interest rate used as a reference to calculate variable interests for loans in lei taken out before May 2019, is seen reaching 4.69% over the next 12-month horizon.
CFA Romania’s macroeconomic confidence index dropped to 45.2 points in February 2022 compared with January 2022. Compared with February 2021, the index fell by 10.5 points due to the evolution of the expectations component of the index.
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 and aims to evaluate financial analysts’ expectations regarding the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. The index is calculated on a scale ranging from zero (no confidence) to 100 points (full confidence in the Romanian economy).