“Inflationary expectations have continued to rise, with the estimated rate of inflation hitting an all-time high for the poll. As regards the trend of interest rates, poll participants expect the National Bank of Romania to raise it to at least 6% in the next 12 months,” says Adrian Codirlasu, CFA Romania vice president.
Data collected by CFA in May shows that for the six-month horizon, most analysts included in the monthly poll anticipate an exchange rate of RON5.0298/euro.
CFA Romania’s macroeconomic confidence index dropped to 36.5 on the 10-point decline of the current conditions component.
Romania’s three-month ROBOR index, the interbank interest rate used to calculate variable interests for loans in lei taken out before May 2019, is seen reaching 6.94% in the next 12 months.
The survey also shows a still falling share of respondents expecting housing prices in major cities to rise in the next 12 months in parallel with a rising share of respondents believing prices will fall. At the same time, 72% of respondents consider housing prices in the main cities are overvalued.
CFA Romania’s poll aims to evaluate financial analysts’ expectations regarding economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon.