Data collected by CFA in April 2022 shows that for the six-month horizon over 82% of analysts expect the leu to average 5.0048 to the euro.
The survey also shows Romania’s economy is projected to grow by 2.3% in real terms and the budget deficit to average 6.9% of GDP in 2022. Romania’s three-month ROBOR index, the interbank interest rate used as a reference to calculate variable interests for loans in lei taken out before May 2019, is seen reaching 5.41% over the next 12-month horizon.
CFA Romania’s macroeconomic confidence index stayed at 40.9 points in April 2022 against the backdrop of a divergent trend of the two components (the expectations and the current conditions) of the index, according to analysts.
The survey also shows a declining share of respondents who expect prices of residential properties in Romania’s large cities to grow over the next twelve months (13.0% – the lowest level since November 2020), concomitantly with an increase in the share of participants who expect residential property prices to decrease (47.8% – the biggest weight since November 2020).
At the same time, 73.9% of the analysts polled by CFA Romania believe that prices of residential properties in the country’s big cities are overrated.
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 and aims to evaluate financial analysts’ expectations regarding the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. The index is calculated on a scale ranging from zero (no confidence) to 100 points (full confidence in the Romanian economy).