Data collected by CFA shows that for the six-month horizon, analysts expect the leu to average 5.0080 to the euro.
“The Confidence Index increased in December 2022 against the backdrop of good news of a reduction of the inflation rate coming from the developed economies and implicitly of some less aggressive anticipated increases of interest rates for the main foreign currencies (USD and EUR). Romania’s annual inflation rate probably reached an all-time high in the last quarter of 2022 and is entering a downward path. However, according to the expectations of analysts polled by CFA, the inflation will stay in double-digit territory throughout 2023.”, said Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of CFA Romania Association.
The Macroeconomic Confidence Index of CFA Romania Association increased (by 4.2 points) to 37.9 points due to the current conditions component growing by 1.3 points and the expectations component by 5.6 points.
The budget deficit for 2022 fell to 5.5% of GDP, in line with the average value of projections, and for 2023, it is expected to reach 5.1%.
For 2023, analysts predict a real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1.7%, slightly above the level anticipated in the previous survey. The country’s public debt to its GDP is seen advancing to 53% over the next 12 months.
At the same time, the three-month ROBOR is projected to reach 7.33 a year over the next 12 months, up from a previous forecast of 7.28%.