In line with data CFA collected in February 2024, over 83% of analysts participating in the monthly survey expect an exchange rate of 5.0029 units/Euro in the next six months.
As regards CFA’s macroeconomic confidence indicator, it rose by 8.6 points in February, to 60.7 points amid an increase in both its components.
“After the fiscal shock of January, which eroded economic confidence, in February confidence returned to the trend of the second half of the previous year,” says Adrian Codirlasu, Vice-President of CFA Romania Association.
The state budget gap is expected to reach 5.5% in 2024, up from the previous exercise, while economic growth expectations slid to 2.5%.
At the same time, the 3-month ROBOR, used to calculate variable interest rates for RON-denominated loans contracted before May 2019, is forecast to reach 5.44% in the next 12 months.
In terms of the evolution of housing prices in cities, most prespondents, 54%, expect stability in the next 12 months. Also, 58% of them believe current prices are overvalued, while 38% consider they are accurately assessed.
Public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is expected to go up to 52% in the next 12 months.
The survey regarding the risks that can affect Romania continued in February, with a 10-year horizon this time.
The main risks anticipated for the next 10 years come from outside the economy, namely the risk of armed conflicts between states, the risk of disinformation and the risk of cyberattacts. Second come economic risks, such as workforce shortage.
Climate risks are still at the bottom of the ranking, but with rising intensity.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)