At the same time, the “annual GDP growth may accelerate to 4.1% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022, towards potential, against the backdrop of perspectives of improving the macroeconomic climate in the eurozone – the main economic partner, and of investment opportunities, including in the Romanian infrastructure”, stated Andrei Radulescu, macroeconomic analysis director with Banca Transilvania (BT).
Romania’s statistics board INS on Tuesday released the provisional estimates (2) on the GDP evolution and its components in the third quarter of 2019 and the January-September 2019 period. The INS data showed Romania’s GDP saw a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.5% (revised downwards from 0.6%) and a year-on-year growth of 3% in the third quarter of 2019, the poorest evolution since the second quarter of 2014.
“Nevertheless, unlike the provisional estimates (1), INS revised upwards the annual rates of productive investments and exports in the third quarter of 2019. INS data showed that the domestic demand contributed 5 percentage points to the annual GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2019 (revised upwards from 4.8 percentage points), an evolution triggered by a lax, pro-cyclic and unsustainable mix of economic policies”, the analysis also says.
INS data outline the acceleration of productive investments to 25.6% year-over-year, revised upwards from 23.9% year-over-year, the highest level since the second quarter of 2008, against the backdrop of an improved risk perception, a low level of real financings costs and development opportunities in the local economy, from a medium-term perspective.
Also, household consumption, the main component of the GDP, grew 4.3% in July-September 2019, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2013, an evolution upheld by a positive climate on the workforce market and the lending market.