The central bank froze its key rate at a record low of 6.25% since May 2010, and hinted it will not operate any changes at least until the end of 2011. The next monetary policy meeting is due November 2.
“Inflation is the best news of this year and the central bank could reach its year-end target, though no one anticipated such a recovery. However, an inflation rate of 3.5% isn’t going to trigger big monetary policy changes, as the rate must be consolidated first,” said Florian Libocor, chief-economist at BRD.
The bank forecasts an annual inflation of 3.8% in December and of 3.6% in 2012.
Libocor said the central bank could decide to send a positive signal to investors and population alike by cutting its main interest rate at the November meeting.
For 2012, BRD estimates the rate will be further lowered to 5.5%.
Romanian consumer prices fell for the fourth straight month in September, on cheaper food, while the annual inflation eased to 3.45%, the lowest rate in over two decades.
The central bank targets an annual rate of 3% in 2011, plus or minus one percentage point around the band.