According to an in-house survey of the Romanian Association of Financial and Banking Analysts, the central bank may not resume its monetary policy easing started last year until 2013 at the earliest.
The analysts expect the central bank will lower its minimum reserve requirements to 13% for Romanian-leu denominated liabilities by year-end, from 15% presently, while keeping the requirements for foreign currency liabilities unchanged at 20%.
Central bank governor Mugur Isarescu said in June that the reserve requirements for leu liabilities could be gradually lowered in the coming period, due to liquidity deficit in the interbank market.
The central bank has cut its main rate by 75 basis points to 5.25% a year in several steps this year, but a government collapse late April has prompted the bank to halt its monetary easing cycle. The monetary policy decision was also influenced by a worsening external environment as the eurozone plunged deeper into the sovereign debt crisis.
The central bank targets an annual inflation of 3% at the end of 2012, plus/minus one percentage point around the band. The bank revised upward its year-end forecast to 3.2% from 3%, citing a less favorable base effect than previously estimated.