These are the first estimates a research firm has publicly revealed, given that companies in the business and their association will not provide any such forecast. The market fluctuates heavily from one month to another, so that no one can make out a trend, not even in the last month of the year.
On the other hand, the downward trend became visible in 2009 when the purchasing power dropped, so that this year’s progression will probably stay within the same lines. Brewers in the region are optimistic. Those in the Czech Republic, where the consumption per capita is the highest in Europe, see 1% growth, a level that Poland expects, as well, according to the data of the brewers’ associations in the two countries.
Canadean notes that the international beer market is showing signs of a rebound, with consumption going up by 2.4% on 2010. In 2009, the growth stood at merely 0.5%. Beer consumption per capita amounts to about 27 liters a year worldwide. In comparison, each Romanian drinks 78 liters of beer every year.
In the absence of official data about beer consumption in the first eight months of the year, ZF used the information provided by the National Statistics Institute to calculate that the market witnessed a 0.4% decline compared with the same time of 2010.
Sales of beer went down 0.7% from June through August 2011, according to the same source. In all, brewers sold a little more than 6 million hectoliters, and the best month, and also the only month of growth, was June. July and August offset that growth, though.
Judging from the results that companies have announced so far, sales vary with the strategies of every brewer.
Heineken, which makes Golden Brau, Ciuc and Bucegi saw sales volumes up in Romania in the third quarter, according to its report, which does not say by how much, though.
Ursus Breweries, the largest player on this market, posted an 8% decline in sales volumes from April through September 2011, compared with the same time in 2010. This period is the first half of the company’s fiscal year.
Beer consumption on the local market went down both in 2009 and in 2010, despite prices that remained among the lowest in Europe. The prices include VAT (sales tax), which in Romania is 24%, among the highest in the EU. Ernst & Young puts the local beer market at some EUR1.8 billion (VAT included). People drink 72% of the beer sold at home, partly because Romania is one of the few countries where the PET-bottled beer accounts for almost 50% of the industry.
(English version by Loredana Fratila-Cristescu)