Currently, one in seven Romanians is aged over 65, but the year 2030 will bring a ratio of one to five people and the year 2060 will bring a ratio of one to three unless birthrate improves.
Romania is among the five European Union member states (alongside Slovakia, Poland, Latvia and Slovenia) whose people will age at the fastest rate over the next decades, according to the report “Economic implications of Romania’s population ageing” elaborated by BCR Cercetare.
The first economic impact of population ageing and shrinkage is the decline in the country’s potential GDP, through reduced workforce contribution and capital. Romania’s potential GDP fell to 1.3% in 2013, from 5% in 2004, due to a contraction in private investments.
Nearly one third of Romania’s workforce is in the agricultural sector, compared to only 3.4% in the eurozone. The services sector accounts for 42% of Romania’s occupied workforce, compared to 72% in the eurozone.
BCR representatives say that offering viable alternatives on the labor market to people aged over 50 is a priority, considering that the inactive population in this age group has seen a strong increase after 2008 due to massive retirements and the economic recession.
The report also says the average life expectancy at birth will increase by four years until 2030, to 75 years old for men and 82 years old for women, and life expectancy at the age of 65 will increase by three years for men and two years for women.
BCR economist Eugen Sinca advices people, on the one hand, to save and invest and the government, on the other hand, to get the private system involved in the healthcare sector, just like it did with the pension system. He said this will reduce the pressure on the public system in the next decades, as far as the healthcare and pension sectors are concerned.