The PMI is a weighted average of several indices related to the manufacturing industry in Romania. These indices include new orders, output, employment, suppliers’ delivery times, and stocks of purchases. The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction.
“The BCR Romania Manufacturing PMI crossed into expansion territory for the first time in just over two years, reaching 50.1 in July vs 48.8 in June. The rebound was mainly driven by higher new orders and output. Stocks of purchases had also a positive directional contribution, while employment and suppliers’ delivery time components had a negative influence,” Erste Group said in a press release.
“Considering the weakness in hard data after the first five months of the year, though subject to some revisions, Romanian manufacturing output seems on track to head into the fourth consecutive year of contraction. This is mainly driven by automotive industry which was down by 10% in the first five months of the year vs the same period of 2025, with the slump accelerating in March-May, reflecting negative external spillovers and ongoing competitiveness erosion,” it added.
In July 2026, the output index placed above the 50.0 threshold for the first time since May 2024, marking only the third monthly increase since the survey started in July 2023.
The new orders index also inched above the 50-point mark for the first time since September 2025, recording the fifth monthly advance on record, exclusively thanks to stronger domestic demand offsetting the extended drop in new export orders, which was likely related to weakness in autos, Erste noted. The country’s manufacturing industry is heavily reliant on external demand and is positioned quite low in the production value chain, showing a lack of high value-added products made by Romanian factories.
“It is too early to call a stabilization in Romanian manufacturing activity as the global headwinds might derail it,” the banking group said. “The recent positive readings for German soft data, with the flash Germany Manufacturing PMI posting six consecutive months above the 50.0 no-change mark and the highest output increase in almost four-and-a-half year in July, are yet to be reflected in higher external demand for Romanian manufacturers as the increase in new orders was exclusively driven by the domestic market.”
Employment decreased slightly in July, by a smaller pace than the historical average, with survey respondents citing voluntary leavers.
Average supplier lead times lengthened again in July, though by a lower amplitude, extending the deterioration that began in April 2025, as disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East persist. Stock of purchases also decreased in July, but only marginally.
Input costs posted a significant increase in July, similar to the previous month, though softer relative to the first two months after the start of the war in Iran, the report indicated. Apart from the inflationary factors reported since the outbreak of the commodity shock, a weaker Romanian leu was cited as a factor for higher import prices. The pass-through of higher input prices into output prices was partial, with firms reporting efforts to increase cost burden sharing with customers where possible.
“Higher reported price pressures cement the view of a stagflation puzzle faced by the Romanian policymakers, despite some stabilization reported in output and domestic demand,” said Erste.
Romania’s industrial production decreased by 3.1% year-on-year in the first five months of the year, the national statistical office, INS, said last month. In 2025, the country’s industrial output fell by 0.9%.
Romania’s manufacturing PMI is released on the first working day of each month and is compiled by S&P Global, which started sending out questionnaires to purchasing managers of about 400 manufacturers in July 2023. Banca Comerciala Romana (BCR), the Romanian unit of Erste, launched the PMI in early 2024.