“Our new forecast for the leu is 4.65 to the euro in September and 4.6 per euro in December due to a longer period of political instability than initially estimated and an adverse external environment,” BCR analyst Eugen Sinca said Monday.
BCR expects the leu will partly recover in the first half of 2013 and will trade at 4.48 per euro in March and at 4.47 to the euro in June next year.
“We think the central bank will stick further to its managed floating FX regime and will contain a disruptive move of the leu,” Sinca said.
Romania’s leu has weakened by over 4.4% against the euro over the past month amid political tensions, hitting a record low of 4.4681 per euro Friday. Since January, the currency lost 7.6% versus the euro.
Monday, the leu closed at 4.5715 to the European common currency.