“We previously estimated the central bank would lower its monetary policy rate in November at the earliest. However, we now believe the interest rate would be cut as early as September,” said Eugen Sinca, chief-economist at BCR.
Speaking at a news conference, Sinca said the minimum reserve requirements for leu-denominated liabilities could be reduced in the second half of 2014, but not until the key rate is lowered below 5% a year.
BCR estimates the main interest rate will drop to 4.5% by the end of 2014.
The central bank last week lefts its key rate unchanged at 5.25% for the ninth consecutive meeting, but indicated it may resume a monetary easing cycle at its following meeting in July, reflecting lower inflationary pressure.
Earlier Wednesday, the bank revised downward its year-end inflation forecast to 3.2% in 2013, from 3.5% previously, saying it expects a reduced impact of fuel and volatile prices.