The monthly decline in loan volumes slowed down to just 0.1% in August, but the annual decline deepened to almost 4%. Lei lending posted a 9% increase in the past year, while the volume of foreign-currency loans shrank by 11%, with new sales being hampered by a series of BNR restrictions, as well as by banks’ lack of foreign currency reserves.
“We’ve reviewed the central forecast scenario for the lending market and according to new projections lending rebound may be postponed to the first quarter of next year,” reads a report by Banca Transilvania.
Lei lending reached RON91.7 billion in late August, namely almost 43% of total non-governmental lending. Foreign currency lending dropped by 11% in the past year and hit EUR27.6 billion.
“We expect the lending market to be influenced, on the short term, by BNR’s monetary policy (we forecast further easing moves), the restructuring of banking portfolios or investment policy (public and private),” reads Banca Transilvania report.
The volume of deposits attracted from clients reverted above the threshold of RON215 billion (around EUR49 billion) at the end of August. The increase in deposits came to around RON900 million in August, but the annual growth pace slowed down, standing below 6%.
Leu-denominated deposits rose by 7% to RON140 billion, while foreign currency resources added around 3%, to EUR17 billion.
Overall, the loan/deposit ratio slid toward the 99% level. In other words, banks have enough resources to fund their loan portfolios. It remains to be seen, though, to what extent banks will be able to support a possible lending pickup.
(English version by Catalina Apostoiu)