“It depends how long this depreciation takes,” Georgakopoulos said. He added that it would be of greater concern if the leu depreciated towards RON4.6-RON4.7 per euro. “However, this depreciation causes added pressure, which the banking market doesn’t need at present.
Georgakopoulos has been working for Bancpost for four years, and was recently promoted to executive vice-president.
Tensions in the euro zone, reignited by scenarios of Greece leaving the euro zone and by the Spanish banking crisis, have already pushed the EUR/RON exchange rate above levels that in the past were only being considered by the most pessimistic analysts, and the next critical threshold is considered to be RON4.5 per euro. Since the start of the crisis, the euro/leu exchange rate has been a constant reason for concern, considering that over 60% of loans on the local market are in foreign currency.
Georgakopoulos said the Greek crisis is a subject that emerges again and again in discussions with clients, considering that the local bank is controlled by Eurobank, one of the four major Greek groups. He added that the history of Bancpost on the Romanian market mitigates negative perceptions because the bank has been present on the Romanian market for 20 years and is fundamentally a local bank.
The serious deterioration of the situation in Greece would have a chain of consequences as far as CDS (Credit Default Swaps) are concerned, in terms of the cost of financing, the exchange rate and in terms of foreign investors’ appetite, and a potential exit from the euro zone would be a major event, which would be felt even in China.
The banker said parent bank Eurobank EFG will benefit from around EUR4.2 billion of the EUR18 billion package allocated for the recapitalization of the four large Greek banks.
He explained that Bancpost has taken precautionary measures in case pressures over the Greek situation rise further, and in the meantime the bank continues to do business.
He mentioned the bank’s high level of capital, a 14.5% solvency, strong liquidity buffers and local financing. In a crisis scenario the bank’s strong points are its capital and liquidity, according to the executive.
Last week, the head of Eurobank, Nicholas Nanopoulos, was in Bucharest and gave the Bancpost management the mandate to consolidate client relations and to make the brand stronger.
“For the full year, we hope to see a single-digit increase in the volume of loans. This is a challenge, but we are encouraged by the fact that most of our products have seen a volume increase, with new loans exceeding repayments,” said Georgakopoulos.
He believes lending demand is the problem of the market right now, not with risk, liquidity or the price of loans.
Georgakopoulos said is very happy with the first results of the promotional campaign for the new personal loan in lei and in euros, for which the bank promises a very prompt approval and uses credit history data from the Credit Bureau.
“In the first month we doubled production. We will see how well it’s been received by the market after two or three months. 90% of demand is for loans in lei, while loans in euros are accessed mainly for refinancing.” Georgakopoulos said Bancpost has managed with this project to get clients from the competition for refinancing and is relying very heavily on the bank’s ability to weigh risks.
He added that he is happy with the quality of the loan portfolio, especially for loans sold in the past 3-4 years, saying Bancpost has developed solid risk management capacities.
On the other hand, the banker says the market is very weak on the mortgage loan segment because people no longer buy homes. “This situation has to do with consumers’ lack of trust and I think it will extend for a further few quarters, with trust also being affected by evolutions in the euro zone. The driver of business will be consumer loans in lei and I think this the way it should be.”
(English version by Daniela Stoican)