“A survey from the Economic Intelligence Unit earlier this year showed that the leu is overvalued by 13%. Since then, the leu continued to gained ground, so the figure now has reached 16%,” said Florin Pogonaru, president of the association.
He said a “normal” exchange rate would be at 4.7-4.8 lei per euro.
Pogonaru said the central bank is “excessively prudent” in its stance regarding speculative capital flows and warned about declining exports.
“Romania is experiencing a recession of exports, as their dynamics is slowing down. We are monitoring the decrease and we wish to warn the relevant parties that a recession in this sector could trigger a serious problem, since exports are the only engine for economic growth in Romania,” he added.
Romanian exports increased by 43.2% on the year to 46.65 billion lei (EUR11 billion) in the first quarter, data from the statistics institute showed. When expressed in euros, exports rose 39.4% on the year.
This year, the leu has gained 3.8% versus the euro to 4.1208 units Tuesday, from 4.2848 units in December 2010.