Last year, private consumption rose 7.4% compared with 2015.
According to estimates by local lender Banca Transilvania, the consumption slowdown scenario is backed by the perspectives of inflation acceleration and the increase of financing costs, the increase of the international crude oil prices and the depreciation of the Romanian leu against the US dollar, the incertitude related to the European economic integration and the risks related to the local financial policies.
The country’s statistics board INS said Tuesday that Romanian unadjusted retail sales fell for the third consecutive month in February, to 4.8% yoy, the lowest level since May 2015, the month before the VAT rate cut on food items (from 24% to 9%).
”This dynamics reflects a high level of consumer caution, on the backdrop of the incidence of conflicting forces: the increase of incomes and the positive juncture in terms of local currency lending vs. the tensions in the public environment, the incertitude related to the future financial policy decisions and the acceleration of inflation,” said Andrei Radulescu.
Romanian adjusted retail sales, excluding vehicle sales, grew 1.8% in February compared with January, while growth in unadjusted terms stood at 2.9%, the country’s statistics board said Tuesday. Adjusted sales of non-food items grew 3.2% on the month in February, sales of food, beverages and tobacco grew 1.6%, while fuel sales declined 0.8%, the data showed.
Compared with February 2016, adjusted retail sales grew 7.8%, as sales of non-food items grew 9.2%, sales of food, beverages and tobacco grew 3.6%, while fuel sales grew 7%.
In unadjusted terms, retail sales grew 4.8% on the year in February.
In the January-February period, adjusted retail sales grew 7.1% compared with the same period the previous year. Sales of food, beverages and tobacco grew 3.1% year-on-year in the first two months of 2017, sales of non-food items grew 8.7%, and fuel sales grew 9.4%.
Retail sales grew 5.4% in unadjusted data in the January-February period.