CFA Romania’s macroeconomic confidence index grew to 70.7 points in May compared with April, the highest level of the last six years. Compared with May 2020, the index grew by 38.3 points. Both the current conditions and the expectations components of the index registered significant growth.
Analysts estimate inflation at 3.53% over the 12-month horizon (May 2021-May 2022).
For the six-month forecast horizon, analysts polled estimate the leu averaging 4.9470 units to the euro and for the 12-month forecast horizon, analysts estimate the leu averaging 5.0062 units per euro.
Over 77% of analysts polled estimate the impact of the pandemic will be felt into 2022 and 42% estimate it will be felt until the last quarter of 2022.
Analysts expect Romania’s budget deficit to come in at 7% of gross domestic product in 2021 and see real GDP growth at 5.1%.
The country’s public debt-to-GDP ratio is seen reaching nearly 52% on the 12-month horizon and expect Romania will adopt the euro currency in 2030.