For the six-month forecast horizon, 87% of analysts polled estimate the leu averaging 4.91 units to the euro.
CFA Romania’s macroeconomic confidence index remained at 55.7 points in March, the same as in February. Compared with March 2020, the index grew by 7.2 points.
The current conditions index grew by 3.5 points on the month in March, to 38.3 points, while the expectations index decreased by 1.7 points, to 64.4 points.
More than half of analysts polled (56%) estimate the impact of the pandemic will be felt until the second quarter of 2022.
CFA analysts see an average real GDP growth of 4.1% for 2021 and estimate the budget deficit will stand at 7.4% of GDP. The government expects 4.3% GDP growth this year and targets a deficit of 7.16%
Analysts see the country’s public debt at 52% of GDP over a 12-month horizon and expect Romania will adopt the euro currency in 2029.