CFA analysts expect an exchange rate of RON4.9284 lei to the euro for the six-month horizon.
The macroeconomic confidence index grew by 1.0 percentage points in September 2020 compared with August 2020, to 34.3 points. Compared with September 2019, the index was 13.2 points lower, due to the current conditions index.
The current conditions index grew by 10.5 points in September compared with August, to 33.0 points. Compared with September 2019, the index decreased by 32.3 points.
The expectations index increased by 3.8 points in September compared with August, to 35.0 points. Compared with September 2019, the index was 3.7 points lower.
Regarding the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the Romanian economy, most analysts expect the impact to be felt strongly until the third quarter of 2021.
Analysts see the state budget deficit at 7.9% of GDP, an economic downturn of 4.5% and an unemployment rate of 6% in 2020.
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 and aims to evaluate financial analysts’ expectations regarding the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. The index is calculated on a scale ranging from zero (no confidence) to 100 points (full confidence in the Romanian economy).