For the six-month horizon, most analysts expect the leu to average 4.9253 units to the euro.
The macroeconomic confidence index grew by 12.5 percentage points in November 2020 compared with October 2020, to 44.5 points. Compared with November 2019, the index was 12.4 points lower, due to the expectations and current conditions components of the index.
The current conditions index grew by 14.2 points on the month in November 2020, up to 34.1 points, and dropped by 34.7 points on the year in November 2020.
The expectations index increased by 11.6 points on the month to 49.8 points in November 2020, and decreased by 1.2 points on the year in November.
Regarding the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the Romanian economy, over half of analysts polled expect the impact to be felt strongly until the third quarter of 2021 and the country’s state budget to reach 9% in 2020.
Analysts expect an economic contraction of 4.4% and an average unemployment rate of 6.5% end-2020. The annual inflation rate is expected to reach on average 2.41% for the 12-month horizon (December 2021/December 2020).
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 and aims to evaluate financial analysts’ expectations regarding the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. The index is calculated on a scale ranging from zero (no confidence) to 100 points (full confidence in the Romanian economy).