Nearly four in ten analysts (38.8%) expect the impact of the pandemic-driven economic crisis to be strong in the second quarter, will continue to have considerable effects in the third quarter and will linger in the fourth quarter and the first months of 2021.
On the other hand, 22.4% think the economic crisis will be felt strongly up until the fourth quarter, 28.6% count on the crisis manifesting only until the third quarter, and just 10% think the economic crisis will end after the send quarter.
Financial analysts’ confidence in Romania’s economy grew 3.7 points in May compared with April, to 36 points. Compared with May 2019, the index dropped 15.5 points.
The current conditions index grew 4.8 points in May compared with April, to 19.4 points. Compared with May 2019, the index dropped 38.9 points.
The expectations index grew 3.1 points on the month and dropped 3.7 points on the year in May, to 44.4 points.
Around 90% of respondents expect the Romanian leu depreciating to an average of 4.8989 units to the euro within the next six months and to 4.9424 in the next 12 months.
Inflation is seen at an average of 3% on the 12-month horizon.
Nearly 69% of respondents expect Romania’s credit default swap costs to grow and over 69% think property prices in large cities are overrated.