Opinions are split over the evolution of interest rates, as half the analysts polled see the three-month money market rate stagnating and the other half see it growing to an average of 2.18% a year in the next 12 months.
Inflation stood at 2.06% at the end of 2020, the leu stood at 4.87 units to the euro, and the three-month interest rate stood at 1.56%.
CFA Romania’s macroeconomic confidence index stood at 50.4 points in December 2020, up by 5.9 points compared with November but down by 11 points compared with December 2019.
Analysts indicate the evolution of the pandemic crisis and Romania’s budget deficit as the main risks for the country’s economy.
Half of analysts polled estimate the impact of the pandemic will be felt until the third quarter of 2021 and a quarter expect it to be felt until the fourth quarter.
CFA analysts see an average GDP growth of 3.3% in 2021 and estimate the budget deficit will stand at 6.9% of GDP.