According to an in-house survey of the Romanian Association of Financial and Banking Analysts, the central bank may not resume its monetary policy easing started last year until 2013 at the earliest.
The analysts expect the central bank will also keep the minimum reserve requirements unchanged at 15% for Romanian-leu denominated liabilities and at 20% for foreign currency liabilities during its Wednesday meeting.
The central bank has cut its main rate by 75 basis points to 5.25% a year since January, but a government collapse late April has prompted the bank to halt its monetary easing cycle. The monetary policy decision was also influenced by a worsening external environment as the eurozone plunged deeper into the sovereign debt crisis.
The central bank targets an annual inflation of 3% at the end of 2012, plus/minus one percentage point around the band. The bank recently revised upward its year-end forecast to 3.2% from 3%, citing a less favorable base effect than previously estimated.