This means the Bucharest market will be influenced by anything that happens in the southeastern European country.
Last week, the rate moved between RON4.21 and RON4.28/euro on the interbank forex market, namely within a 1.6% margin.
The maximum rate calculated and published by the National Bank of Romania (BNR) stood at RON4.2635/euro on Monday, June 20, when the political situation in Greece was up in the air and the shock wave was felt in Bucharest as well.
On Thursday and Friday, exchange rate movements eased, with the rate sliding to RON4.2160/euro.
For BNR, exchange rate stability is extremely important and this is why dealers believe the central bank intervened at the start of last week to calm things down.
For foreign analysts, who are watching the exchange rate through
the perspective of projected macroeconomic results, the Romanian
currency is an attractive currency for investments. They recommend
investors to reopen positions on the Romanian market, forecasting
an exchange rate decline toward RON4.1/euro. Investments should
either be made in notes, with an interest rate of between 6% and 7%
for lei, or in leu deposits.
Global financial industry heavyweights, from groups present
domestically, such as Societe Generale or Citi, to giant JP Morgan,
are again writing about the leu in an upbeat tone, considering the
decline triggered by Greek turmoil has been too sharp.
French-held Societe Generale, the majority shareholder in BRD, the
second largest bank in Romania, recommends investors to buy put
options at an exchange rate of RON4.2/euro, with the target of
RON4.1/euro.
This week, Bucharest dealers and analysts will be watching what the central bank decides during Wednesday’s session. Even as most voices say BNR will keep the benchmark interest rate at 6.25% per annum, all analysts want to see what BNR will be saying “between the lines” of the statement. Whether it tightens monetary policy to curb inflation in the second half of the year, or keep things as they are.