The European Commission expects the Romanian economy to rise by 2.2% in 2013, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expects a 1.9% rise. The IMF’s October estimate for Romania’s growth in 2013, of 2.5%, has remained the most optimistic one.
Romania’s economy is dependent on external financing, so in the absence of European funds and of direct foreign investment, economic growth will be very difficult to achieve next year, analysts said at the annual conference of the Association of Financial – Banking Analysts in Romania (AAFBR).
Analysts’ estimates for this year’s economic growth range between 0.5% and 2.2%, with the average being 1.2%.
Agriculture is expected to have a favorable base effect on the economy after a negative impact in 2012. And the return to positive territory of the euro zone economy would have a favorable impact on exports and industrial production.
The main internal risk for the 2013 economic growth and the big unknown is how next year’s budget will be built, if it is pro economic growth or if it limits investments, says Lucian Croitoru, advisor to the central bank governor. Analysts expect lending to improve next year, but are skeptical that the banking system will be the driver of economic growth.
(English version by Daniela Stoican)