“For 4Q of 2011 we expect a slight slowdown of economic growth to plus 0.4% quarter/quarter (seasonally adjusted data) and plus 2.5% year/year, which would mean a full-year growth rate of 2.6%. We believe agriculture has remained a basic driver of economic growth in 4Q of 2011, alongside the resumption of investments in the construction sector and the good performance of retail,” says Eugen Sinca, analyst at BCR, the largest bank on the Romanian market by assets.
Vlad Muscalu, ING Bank economist, says the bank’s original estimate was that economic activity stagnated in 4Q of 2011 (0% in seasonally adjusted quarterly terms), which, according to the banks’ estimates, means a slowdown in annual terms to 3.8%, from 4.4%. in the preceding quarter.
“This forecast for the last quarter would be consistent with a 3% increase in economic activity last year, according to our estimate. However, recent figures (especially related to foreign trade) would suggest that our forecast risks to be slightly too optimistic, rather than too pessimistic,” Muscalu says.
Catalina Molnar, senior economist at RBS Bank, says the bank’s forecast for 2011 has been revised upwards to 2.5% (from 1.8%) as soon as full 3Q data were published. The bank also modified its 4Q forecast, by including the effect of the exceptionally good agricultural year, to a 2.2% growth rate in annual terms, a halving against the 3Q rate.
“This slowdown is based on a significant deterioration of the industry growth rate (showed by the monthly data published by the statistics institute), a slower growth of agriculture (typical of 4Q, as opposed to 3Q) and a similar or slightly lower growth of the construction sector,” Molnar explained.
Melania Hancila, chief economist of Volksbank, in turn expects GDP to slow down in the last quarter of 2011 and grow 2% year/year, with the fluctuation being close to zero in quarterly terms because of the slowdown of industry and because of a decline in net taxes.
“We estimate that the GDP went up 2% in 4Q thanks to the rise of agriculture, industry, and trade. So, we estimate the GDP growth rate for the full 2011 was about 2.2-2.4% a year thanks to above-expectations growth of industry and agriculture, as well as thanks to a slight rebound of the construction sector,” Hancila says.
The economy rose 1.7% in the first quarter of 2011, by 1.4% in the second quarter and by 4.4% in the third quarter, in gross series compared with the similar period of 2010.
The 4.4% economic growth in 3Q 2011 against 3Q of 2010 and by 1.9% against 2Q of 2011 surprised everyone, finance specialists and businesspeople alike, after all data of the last few months had been adjusted down as a result of the worsening of the situation in Europe.
In the first nine months of 2011, the economy grew 2.7% in gross series against the similar period of 2010 and by 2.6% in seasonally adjusted terms.
(English version by Daniela Stoican)