“In the second quarter, the gross domestic product’s evolution was weaker than in the first quarter. Exports cannot keep increasing by 30% and the industry by two-digit figures,” said Lucian Anghel, chief economist of BCR. “We hope the retail decline does not worsen so as to drag the economy down below zero. However, we expect to see better economic performance in the third and fourth quarters than in the first quarter because of the base effect,” he added.
Some of the data coming from the real economy lately have been disappointing, prompting some analysts to fear a renewed economic decline in the second quarter. Data published by the Statistics Institute revealed a slowdown in industrial output, with its growth rate down to 6.3%. Retail sales fell 6.2% in April against the similar month of 2010. Exports were a negative surprise in April, falling 17% against the March peak, while consumer spending is showing no signs of rebound.
The most pessimistic GDP estimate comes from ING Bank, which anticipates a 0.1% economic decline in the second quarter against the first.
Volksbank expects economic growth of 0.3%-0.5% in the second quarter against the first quarter of the year, while the real growth against the second quarter of last year is estimated at 1% to 1.2%.
In the first quarter, the economy grew by 0.7% against the last quarter of 2010, with industry being the biggest contributor. Against the same period of 2010, the GDP growth was of 1.7% (+0.3% in seasonally adjusted data).