Macroeconomics
– Economic growth could accelerate this year amid a rebound of consumption after the economy stagnated last year. GDP could rise by 2% under the most optimistic scenario.
– Inflationary pressures will continue to be felt in the first part of this year as energy becomes more expensive and amid excise hikes, with the price increase to soften towards the end of the year.
– The exchange rate could stabilize, with bank analysts predicting an average exchange rate of almost RON4.6 to the euro in 2013 under the most pessimistic scenario.
– The budget deficit will amount to around 2% of GDP this year, close to the 2012 level. In nominal terms, the deficit could fall by RON2-3 billion.
– Exports will continue to rise, especially for companies that made investments during the crisis years, but double-digit rises are no longer expected this year.
Banks and Insurance
– Bancpost is set to merge with Banca Romaneasca as part of the planned consolidation of Greek groups Eurobank and the National Bank of Greece; last year an attempted merger between Eurobank and Alpha Bank failed.
– BCR will go through the toughest restructuring in the Romanian banking system, with potential negative consequences for the economy given its position as market leader on lending.
– Lending in the Romanian currency could gain more ground, while mortgage loans could be affected by “First home” program being restricted to new homes.
– The share of non-performing loans could exceed 25% at system level, while their flattening would depend on the recovery of the economy.
– Mandatory auto liability insurance policies RCA will boost fees by up to 40% in the wake of legislation tightening; some companies could exit the market.
Auto
-Car sales will stagnate around 70,000 units in 2013. The Romanian market will continue to be supported by acquisitions made by companies, but will also be affected by the decline in individuals’ purchasing power.
-The clunkers program will most likely return to its pre- 2010 form, whereby only those who own and scrap a car older than ten years will be able to get the RON3,800 scrappage premium from the state.
– Ford will increase production of its B-Max to 375 cars per day in 2013 amid the retooling of the Craiova plant and will increase the production of EcoBoost engines towards 300,000 units per year.
– Car production will reach over 400,000 units in 2013 in Romania, after this mark failed to be reached in 2012 because Ford’s Craiova plant manufactured up to 35,000 units. Dacia will most likely produce almost 340,000 units at its Mioveni plant, while Ford will most likely approach 100,000 units in Craiova.
– Component producers will continue investments in Romania this year. Some of the biggest investments announced so far are Pirelli’s in its Slatina plant, and those of Bosch and Continental.
Pharma and Health
– The new health law, put up for public debate in the summer of 2012, is expected to reach Parliament in 2013.
– Vaccine production, which was completely suspended in 2012, should kick off again at the Cantacuzino Institute.
– The distribution of the health card should start in the first part of this year.
– Investments in private clinics and hospitals will continue in 2013, but at a slower pace than in 2012 and 2011.
– The drug market will rise by just 1-2%, while in the past the industry used to rise by as much as 20-30%.
Energy
– Hidroelectrica will get out of insolvency, at least this is what the current administrators of the major energy producer have announced.
– The support scheme for renewable energy through green certificates could be modified to lower the aid made available to investors by the Romanian state.
-The year 2013 will be marked by an increase in the price of natural gas and of energy amid the implementation of the calendar for eliminating regulated prices.
-The oil market could witness transactions as Russian Gazprom announced it wanted 50 gas stations in Romania by the end of 2013.
– The Black Sea will continue to attract the money of major oil companies. ExxonMobil and Petrom already have a $1 billion acquisition list.
Real estate and infrastructure
– Romania’s highway network could increase by almost 150 km this year following deliveries on Corridor IV (Constanta-Nadlac), a route that crosses Romania, and that could be operational over 65% of its 850 km.
– Home prices will most likely continue to decline, especially on the segment of old apartments, with the Government planning to turn the “First home” scheme into the “New home”.
-The construction market is most likely to stagnate or decline in 2013. It will rise only if the state comes up with projects.
– On the mall segment the most intense activity is set to occur in Brasov, where three investors intend to start work on shopping centers this spring.
– The vacancy rate of office buildings in Bucharest is expected to decline amid weak deliveries.
Retail
– Changes will occur in the top three ranking of modern retail. Auchan will make room for itself in the top-three ranking, but the leader will continue to be Kaufland.
– Fashion retailers such as H&M and Zara will make their way into Bucharest’s old center, an area currently dominated by restaurants, bars and coffee shops.
– Modern retail companies (Mega Image, Carrefour, Profi, Metro) will increasingly tap the convenience store segment, estimated at EUR7-8 billion.
– Supermarket chains will open over 150 new stores, approaching 650 units.
– Consumption, the leading indicator for commerce, will be stable, with no significant rises or declines.
Stock Exchange
– Fondul Proprietatea will be under the siege of court cases and of politicians.
– The state will conduct one single stock exchange public offering and will “forget” about the other ones.
– At least one brokerage firm from among the top 20 will leave the stock exchange in 2013.
– The fight over control of regional investment funds SIFs will continue in the general meetings of shareholders.
– Equity funds could recover, but the biggest amounts will continue to go into conservative funds.
Labor market
– The 5% lowering of social security contributions CAS, provided for in the government program of ruling alliance USL, is not likely to be adopted this year because it would lead to a significant decline in government revenues if it doesn’t encourage new hiring.
– A significant portion of the 2,000 projects financed through POSDRU, the European program for developing human resources, will face significant problems following the suspension of payments by the European Commission.
– 2013 will be the toughest year for Romanian employees because if wage increases are made, they will not be felt because of inflation, and those who want to change their job have limited options and they are risky.
– The number of employees will not rise by more than 10,000 people because employers have been cautious when drafting the budgets for 2013. New hiring will be done only if absolutely necessary.
– Young people will have an increasingly hard time finding a job considering that in 2013 as in the previous two years half the 200,000 high school graduates are expected not to pass their graduation exams.
IT&C
– Tablets and smartphones will continue their sales boom. Tablets could for the first time rival laptops in terms of number of units delivered.
– The Cosmote-Romtelecom merger could start as early as in 2013.
– The state could finally launch IT projects meant to cut bureaucracy and make administration more efficient.
– Cloud computing services will extend increasingly more in the private sector and could even reach state administration.
– Online services will gain ground amid the rise in the number of users of smartphones / tablets and of mobile and fixed internet.
(English version by Daniela Stoican)