Macroeconomy
* Economic growth will speed up towards 4%.
* Romania’s central bank might keep the key rate or even raise it to more than 2%.
* Inflation will return to positive territory and end the year at 1% to 2%.
* The exchange rate will be relatively stable. The leu should gain ground on the euro.
* Exports might reach a new all-time high but will not keep up with imports.
Labor market
* Minimum wage will go up to 1,250 lei as of May
* Hiring will increase by 3% in the first quarter.
* Vacancies are no longer available only to insiders.
* Vocational training, a priority for manufacturing businesses.
* Outsourcing industry will exceed 70,000 employees.
Banking sector
* The sector will see consolidation. What will happen to the Greek banks and who will buy Banca Carpatica?
* Number of employees in bank branches will continue to decline.
* Leu lending will remain the driver of the market.
* Sales of non-performing loans will continue, with deals expected to reach EUR2 billion.
* What will Romanian privately held banks do and how successful with the Polish be on the Romanian market?
Insurance
* Consolidation process will continue on both insurance and insurance brokerage markets.
* Health insurance might be the star of this year.
* Stabilization of auto liability insurance – no significant hikes or cuts.
* Diversification of product portfolios.
* Intermediation growth pace will slow down.
Stock market
* BET is expected to go up by 10% to 15%.
* Private companies might start IPOs in 2016.
* New capital inflows from low dividend tax.
* Brokers’ battle for survival will become even fiercer.
* Mutual funds will continue to increase at a double-digit rate.
Energy
* The deals to watch this year include the one involving the Kazakh-held Rompetrol and China’s CEFC. OMV Petrom, too, announced intentions to sell its wind farms.
* New information about the resource potential in the Black Sea is expected to become available this year.
* The Rompetrol memorandum, the Lukoil investigation and the potential exit from insolvency of Hidroelectrica are the main cases of 2016.
* The insolvency of Complexul Energetic Hunedoara stands proof to the failure to reorganize the energy sector. The first steps towards recovery are expected this year.
* Royalties are one of the unaccomplished tasks of 2015. As is the energy sector strategy. They will be included on the agenda of 2016.
Industry
* The fate of the Daewoo Mangalia Heavy Industries shipyard will be decided.
* Current geopolitical context might lead to Romania rearming.
* Sisyphus and Otelu Rosu. Will the company be able to bounce back after several sale attempts?
* A year of changes for the steel industry, given the drop in price and demand.
* Will the Prosecutor’s Office be able to sweep the dirt from under the rug of the waste collection and recycling industry?
Infrastructure and construction
* The year 2016 will see almost 80 kilometers of highway inaugurated, along with the reopening of the Saliste-Cunta section on the A1 Highway.
* Construction sector will see at least 10% growth driven by the new office buildings in Bucharest and the major cities and by the new residential projects.
* No work on a highway crossing the Carpathian Mountains will begin this year.
* Construction materials market will continue consolidation, a trend that became more visible after the Lafarge-Holcim merger.
* The poor condition of the Bucharest Beltway will continue to affect traffic in Bucharest and around it.
Homes
* Tax on homes will be calculated by type of usage thereof
* Romanians will be able to borrow money via the First Home scheme cheaper
* Apartment prices will continue to increase, following a 5% rise in 2015
* A new bet of developers: mixed office space and residential projects, a model that Inter IKEA’s real estate division will implement, as well.
* Other cities start getting their own Corbeanca and Snagov (villages outside Bucharest with significant residential development in recent years).
Commercial property
* The local market saw the opening of the largest shopping center inaugurated in five years in 2015, and developers promise to deliver new projects not only in Bucharest but in other cities, as well, in 2016.
* New retail hubs are shaping up in Bucharest. One of them is the Theodor Pallady Boulevard in the east of the city, where IKEA will start building its second store in Romania.
* Furniture retailers become new investors in land for commercial development.
* More than EUR800 million investments in office space, retail, logistics and industrial projects.
* Calea Victoriei and the Old Town, two of the best-known and busiest retail areas of Bucharest will still be reeling from the actions taken by the authorities following the Colectiv nightclub fire in Bucharest.
Retail
* VAT cut to 20% will give a boost to consumer spending
* Will 2016 be the year of a new deal in the modern retail sector?
* Two decades from its start in the country, modern retail will exceed 2,000 stores
* A new year comes with new store formats for large format retailers
* Will the battle between producers and retailers battle worsen, now that the latter have private labels to fall back on?
Pharmaceutical & healthcare
* Private medical service market will shrink. A few large players will remain, and the small ones will survive on market niches.
* MedLife might be the involved in the biggest deal of 2016.
* Public hospitals will be inaugurated in Bucharest, the first such facilities built after the fall of the communist regime.
* No drug ads on TV and radio channels.
* Results of the anti-corruption department DNA investigations that shook the pharmaceutical market will be revealed.
Tourism
* Romania starts to become visible on the world travel map.
* Existing airlines launch new routes, new names are looking at the local market.
* International hotel chains continue expansion.
* Romanians have more money for travel because of the fiscal relaxation steps.
* More and more Romanian and foreign investors choose rural tourism, taking a cue from Western countries.
Agribusiness
* The number of small and medium-sized agribusiness companies will increase, after the number of companies with EUR1 million to EUR10 million revenue have doubled in the past six years.
* Farmers will harvest at least 6.5 million tons of wheat in 2016, from an area of less than 2 million hectares allocated to this crop, compared with 7.4 million tons in 2015.
* How risky will the rapeseed bet turn out to be, considering farmers allocated 50% more land to this crop compared with 2015?
* GPS-enabled tractors and seeding machines, automated silos, drones, mapping services will become a growing presence in Romania’s agriculture in 2016, driven by the farmers’ need to keep costs under control.
* New millionaires among the agribusiness entrepreneurs? The year 2015 witnessed the most important deals in the local agricultural sector and the trend might continue this year, since major foreign groups are eyeing Romania for investment.
Transport and logistics
* Romania’s national railroad company CFR signed four funding contracts worth a total of EUR4 million contracts with the European Commission to upgrade the railroad infrastructure connecting Brasov-Sighisoara, Craiova-Calafat and Craiova-Drobeta Turnu Severin – Caransebes.
* Deals and consolidation will continue in the logistics sector, which currently stands at more than EUR3.5 billion a year.
* The railroad freight transportation market is in decline and the state of the infrastructure only makes it worse.
* Traffic through the Henri Coanda Otopeni Airport will go up by more than 10% in 2016 and almost reach 10 million passengers.
* Waterway transportation is a strategic sector in Romania. The amount of freight transiting Constanta Harbor will continue to increase.
Start-ups
* The people looking to start their own business in 2016 have more funding opportunities because they have access to lines of financing provided by EU and governmental programs.
* Research and development, innovation and information technology are the areas most likely to get EU funding.
* Besides EU-funding programs, there are also government-backed programs supporting startups. The most important of them is the program aimed at people who start their first business.
* This year’s developments will depend on absorption of the EU funds.
* The online sector has become the sector of choice for young entrepreneurs.
Auto
* New car sales will go up by more than 10% again, driven by a new ‘Rabla’ clunkers program.
* Car production will be again close to 400,000 units.
* Ford expects a second model in Craiova, which might come as late as 2017, though.
* Automotive component production will see steady growth again, partly fueled by state aid granted to foreign companies.
* Second hand car registrations, especially of low price vehicles, will continue to increase.
Professional services
* Legal services market will be busier but pressure on prices will be higher.
* More and more Romanian executives that have built a career in multinationals switch to consultancy.
* Managers in the temporary workforce recruitment and leasing business see higher demand from IT, services and retail sectors.
* Market research companies broaden their horizons.
* Tax advisory firms are recruiting people still in college.
IT&C
* What direction will the new Telekom CEO steer the group to?
* What telecom operators will give up in 2016?
* Expansion of IT centers continues.
* Unknown IT sector companies will become available on the stock market.
* Software specialists will be harder to find and require higher pay.
International economy and politics
* World economy will remain in turmoil and world trade will remain at all-time lows.
* Germany, Europe’s main growth driver, has a cautiously optimistic growth scenario.
* Negative interest experiment continues.
* FED is confident about the US economy and will increase the key rate at least once.
* Oil price may reach as low as $20 or as much as $50.
(English version by Loredana Fratila-Cristecu)