Macroeconomy
* Economic growth will exceed 2%. The economy will continue to receive support from export demand, as well as from the rise in domestic demand, while agriculture’s contribution is uncertain.
* Inflation will stand at less than 1.5% in the first few months of the year and may go up to 2% by yearend.
* The exchange rate might be relatively stable, possibly going back to less than 4.4 lei to one euro.
* Budget deficit will be lower than 2% of GDP this year, as fiscal adjustment continues.
* Exports will continue to increase and remain a growth driver for the GDP, but the annual growth rate will slow down to less than 10%.
Labor market
* Wages will go up by 5% on average in 2015.
* Companies hiring will have a harder and harder time finding programmers and skills.
* Thousands of jobs will be created in the outsourcing business. Romania is becoming a regional outsourcing hub.
* Number of employees will rise by 100,000 people.
* Unemployment among young people becomes more serious due to the high school graduation exam disaster.
Startups
* The number of IT&C startups will increase. Software was among the top 15 areas young people chose when starting a new business in 2014.
* Number of SRL-D (businesses started by young entrepreneurs) companies disbanded will not go over 3%.
* The business angels’ law is one of the most eagerly awaited bills of this year.
* Partnerships between startups and major retail chains.
* Emergence of new business incubators.
Banking
* Non-performing loans will remain a problem.
* Consolidation will continue.
* Number of employees and bank branches will continue to decline.
* Leu lending will gain ground again.
* Banca Transilvania might replace BRD-Groupe Societe Generale as the second leading bank in Romania for the first time ever.
Insurance
* Smaller differences between auto liability (RCA) policy rates, higher average premium and, possibly, the capping of fees paid by insurers to brokers.
* Capital increases among insurers.
* New legislative changes for both insurers and brokers, as the Financial Supervisory Authority (ASF) will try to balance the market.
* Stagnation of insurance market or slight increase of 1% to 2%.
* A high number of brokers will exit the market.
Stock market
* The AeRO system, devised by the Bucharest Stock Exchange to attract companies with high growth potential, launches on February 25, 2015, when a few companies start trading.
* The closure of RASDAQ at the end of October will depopulate the stock market.
* Hidroelectrica’s initial public offering will be the only one on the regulated market of the Stock Exchange.
* Energy sector will remain the star of the stock market.
* Launch of the pilot program to sell government paper to consumers at affordable prices will be a new savings option and attract new retail investors to the capital market.
Industry
* Support for renewable energy will continue to affect the margins of industrial companies.
* Polluting emissions will be more expensive due to the rise in the greenhouse gas emission certificate prices.
* Aluminum and steel prices surged in 2014 and the trend appears likely to continue. This is good news for aluminum smelters and steel mills, and bad for ships and aircraft builders.
* Industrialization of Western Romania will continue, as the region attracted investors in manufacturing plants because of the skilled work force available and the quick access to shipping routes in view of export.
* The shortage of skills will not be over but there is hope for a relaunch of vocational education.
Transport and logistics
* The logistics market stands at more than EUR3.5 billion a year and continues to grow.
* Logistics investments. KLG Europe Logistics Romania, one of the largest logistics and transport companies in Romania, is growing.
* Taxes slow down road carriers. The Romanian tax authority (ANAF) decided to include the daily allowance drivers get while on the road in the salary income category.
* High Danube transport potential. Romania transports 28 million tons of freight on its waterways and 39.5 million tons of freight by sea every year.
* Growth resources for air traffic. Passenger traffic on the 16 airports in the country stood at 10.7 million people last year.
Auto
* Auto market will grow again in 2015 by at least 10%, driven not only by a clunkers program but also by the new First Car scheme. The market is expected to come close to 110,000 vehicles again, compared with about 100,000 in 2014.
* Car production will decline again by at least 5% to fewer than 360,000 cars in 2015.
* Automotive component production will continue to grow this year, as Bosch, Continental and the other manufacturers announce higher volumes.
* The year 2015 will be the first year of the new First Car scheme that will allow young people to get cheaper loans to buy a new car with a price tag of up to 50,000 lei (about EUR12,000) excluding VAT.
* Second hand car registrations will follow a downward trend this year as they did in 2014, with more and more customers choosing to buy a new car.
Energy
* In 2015, Romania has to decide on a new royalty system.
* The Rompetrol memorandum, Enel’s exit, Hidroelectrica’s exit from insolvency are the most important cases awaiting a solution in 2015.
* Romania will find out how much natural gas there is in the Black Sea.
* Electricity demand will not see any progress in the absence of a strong economic growth.
* Completion of energy strategy. The new people in charge of the Energy Ministry will have to complete this project under debate since 2014.
Pharmaceuticals and healthcare
* Private healthcare service sector will see a number of deals, with the sale of Regina Maria likely one of the most important of them.
* Pharmaceutical market will increase by 2% to 3%, following the subsidized drug list update.
* Private medical insurance will continue to grain ground.
* Health Ministry continues updating the subsidized drug list and wants to make new investments in radiation therapy centers and three new regional hospitals.
* Computerization makes progress: the number of electronic medical records increases, the electronic prescription is extended to non-subsidized drugs and the patient referral letters will switch to electronic format, too.
Tourism
* Lower VAT on travel packages will keep more Romanians in Romania.
* Robbie Williams’ concert will be a Romanian and foreign tourist magnet. Other artists to perform in Romania this year are Andre Rieu, Marc Anthony and OneRepublic.
* Higher number of flights abroad. Companies like Wizz Air, Blue Air and airberlin have already announced plans to boost number of flights.
* Travel agency revenues will rise by up to 20%, following expansion to corporate customers and increase in holiday packages sold to consumers.
* Cluj-Napoca will be the European Youth Capital in 2015 and attract more tourists.
Infrastructure and construction
* Only 10 kilometers of the Nadlac-Arad highway segment and maybe the 6.5 kilometers between Bucharest and Moara Vlasiei will be opened for traffic in 2015.
* Construction market could return to growth this year, going up by 5% to 10%.
* No highway over the Carpathian Mountains will see construction work begin this year, either.
* Construction materials market will continue consolidation, a trend that became more visible with the Lafarge-Holcim merger.
* The poor condition the Bucharest beltway is in will continue to make traffic in the city really difficult.
Housing
* The number of new homes completed in 2015 will be flat at about 45,000.
* Almost 10,000 houses and apartments might be delivered in Bucharest-Ilfov this year.
* Housing prices in Bucharest will only fluctuate by several percent.
* Banks will step up sale of the thousands of foreclosed homes.
* First Home will be available in 2015 again to keep the market and leu mortgage lending going.
Commercial property
* Mega Mall in the Pantelimon district of Bucharest is scheduled to open in April, with new shopping centers to be delivered in Brasov and Timisoara, as well.
* NEPI will become the largest investor on the local real estate market.
* Office space stock in Bucharest will increase by about 100,000 square meters this year.
* A new major player might make significant acquisitions in 2015.
* The office space market outside Bucharest will grow faster than the market in the capital city.
Retail
* Modern retail is going through consolidation, so Billa and Cora might be in the cards for a deal.
* First fines in the retail sector. The results of the first investigation the Competition Council conducted in the industry are expected this year.
* Profi and Mega Image. Which will one will be expansion champion? The two networks opened 70% of the new stores in 2014 and Profi has already budgeted 100 new stores in 2015.
* First retail chain headed towards EUR2 billion sales is Kaufland.
* Retail market will grow by more than 5%.
Agriculture
* Wheat price will not go beyond RON1,000/ton in 2015, since a 40% increase on this season would have to be based on a sharp decline in production or significant demand migration.
* Farmers will harvest at least 19 million tons of grain and 2015 will be the third year of abundant crops in a row.
* Farmland will be trading at less than EUR5,000/hectare in 2015.
* Investors will pool 100,000 hectares from the farms of less than five hectares, creating over 100 hectare farms.
* GPS-enabled tractors and seeding machines, automated silos, drones, mapping services will spread in the Romanian agriculture sector in 2015, driven by farmers’ need to keep costs under control.
Telecom
* Smartphone and mobile internet consumption surge will not slow down.
* Pressured by taxes and regulations, the operators will be looking for new ways to cut costs.
* Online video platforms will be at the center of investment strategies.
* 2015 may be the year of a major acquisition or merger of large players.
* End of Catalin Marinescu’s term at the helm of telecom watchdog may bring regulatory changes.
IT
* Rally of hiring in software and services centers will continue.
* Tablets and smartphones will become even more important for business.
* Private companies will step up outsourcing of some of their IT related operations.
* Number of local technology startups will rise.
* More companies will resort to crowdfunding.
International economy and politics
* Analysts forecast euro depreciation against the dollar and even parity of the two.
* Decline of oil price is nearing its end.
* Neither the West nor Putin will risk a collapse of the Russian economy and the conflict will become less intense.
* Wall Street markets will continue their upward trend driven by the growth of the US economy.
* The European Central Bank will start printing euros to buy bonds in an attempt to avoid deflation and recession.
(English version by Loredana Fratila-Cristescu)